It’s a beguiling vision: You wake up and tell your house management system that you need to be in Munich, or Chicago, or Beijing, by two in the afternoon. The house tells your mobility provider, which computes the journey and sends an itinerary to your smart device. At the appointed time, a driverless car rolls up and greets you by name, and you say hello to a couple of people already seated inside. The car drops you all at an integrated mobility hub, where you board a 750 miles per hour hyperloop that whisks you to your target city in mere minutes. An autonomous bus waits at the station to take you to your final destination, a shared office space in the city center.
To determine if this is what mobility could look like in the year 2040, Oliver Wyman recently conducted a survey of several hundred executives and experts in the transportation industry globally. Driven by the fourth industrial revolution, technological convergence, new entrants in the mobility space, and changing travel behaviors, we expect the pace of innovation in passenger transportation to accelerate over the next quarter century. Disruption to existing business models will be widespread, and 80 percent of passenger transportation incumbents say they don’t feel well prepared for what’s coming.
A FAST-APPROACHING TOMORROW
Our survey identified four key trends that will shape passenger transport over the next 25 years: 1) sustainable, efficient assets; 2) integrated personal mobility; 3) urbanization and smarter cities; and 4) increased competition and innovation.
Sustainable, efficient assets: The next 25 years will see greater demand for sustainable solutions and more efficient use of transportation assets. Eighty percent of survey participants believe that there will be fewer private cars in the future, while nearly 70 percent see a significant increase in car sharing. These trends will be accelerated by the development of fully autonomous vehicles. It is not too farfetched to imagine autonomous car fleets that are shared across a neighborhood or city on a fee-per-use or subscription basis.
Integrated personal mobility: Current mobility services will coalesce into full-scale mobility providers, who will focus on enabling seamless, on-demand journeys by integrating all modes of transport. For the traveler, transport mode selection and timetables will cease to be an issue – they’ll only need to know what time to be ready so as to reach a destination by a given time. Smart devices will become the organizational center for all trip planning and mobility personalization.
Urbanization and smarter cities: Urban and conurbation populations will continue to grow, increasing passenger volumes. The “smart city” of the future thus will have to invest in technology and transport, with a focus on passenger flow management. Coordination with mobility providers, real-time data monitoring, and responsive smart grid systems will ensure the best use of public transport and minimize congestion.
Original Post by: forbes.com